— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
73¢
hres
71¢
icon
59¢
wn2
57¢
nbm
56¢
aifs
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F4¢
56–57°F21¢
58–59°F38¢
60–61°F28¢
62–63°F8¢
64–65°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,306 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.693 vs climatology 8.865.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE61 · opened 2026-10-11T11:20:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape