— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
65¢
eps
65¢
ndfd
53¢
wn2
53¢
icon
49¢
nbm
44¢
aifs
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F15¢
58–59°F37¢
60–61°F34¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,407 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.862.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261018-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-11T07:32:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape