— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
98¢
nbm
91¢
hres
79¢
aifs
78¢
wn2
74¢
eps
66¢
icon
59¢
ndfd
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F6¢
58–59°F18¢
60–61°F30¢
62–63°F27¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape