daily prop · Seattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Tue Oct 20

Seattle stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 52°F · Tue Oct 20

2¢

american +6436 · decimal 65.36

on the tape

52°F is the bottom-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present).

Canonical settlement condition: High ≤ 52°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		13¢
icon		8¢
ndfd		7¢
eps		4¢
wn2		2¢
aifs		2¢
nbm		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

54–55°F1¢

56–57°F6¢

58–59°F18¢

60–61°F30¢

62–63°F27¢

64–65°F14¢

66–67°F4¢

68–69°F0¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSEA-20261020-TMAX-LE52 · opened 2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape