daily prop · Seattle, WA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Wed Oct 21

Seattle runs hot-for-here: 65°F+ · Wed Oct 21

29¢

american +243 · decimal 3.43

on the tape

65°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 65°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		64¢
icon		60¢
aifs		49¢
wn2		45¢
eps		32¢
ndfd		29¢
nbm		6¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F2¢

62–63°F20¢

64–65°F44¢

66–67°F28¢

68–69°F5¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSEA-20261021-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-14T10:34:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape