— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
73¢
aifs
70¢
hres
56¢
nbm
55¢
wn2
51¢
icon
39¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F8¢
56–57°F18¢
58–59°F27¢
60–61°F25¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261022-TMAX-GE58 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape