— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
62¢
ndfd
54¢
wn2
49¢
icon
29¢
nbm
29¢
aifs
25¢
hres
15¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
44–45°F1¢
46–47°F2¢
48–49°F6¢
50–51°F11¢
52–53°F16¢
54–55°F19¢
56–57°F18¢
58–59°F14¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261024-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:46+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape