— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
19¢
ndfd
18¢
wn2
17¢
icon
16¢
eps
14¢
aifs
11¢
nbm
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
44–45°F1¢
46–47°F2¢
48–49°F4¢
50–51°F8¢
52–53°F12¢
54–55°F15¢
56–57°F16¢
58–59°F15¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F8¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261025-TMAX-GE63 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape