— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
24¢
eps
24¢
wn2
17¢
aifs
10¢
nbm
7¢
icon
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
44–45°F1¢
46–47°F2¢
48–49°F4¢
50–51°F8¢
52–53°F12¢
54–55°F15¢
56–57°F16¢
58–59°F15¢
60–61°F11¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,335 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.605 vs climatology 8.757.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-20261026-TMAX-GE63 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape