season prop · Seattle, WA · winter · settles Mon Mar 1
Seattle beats a normal winter's rain: DJF ≥ 15.7 in
52¢
american -108 · decimal 1.93
on the tape
15.7 in is the station's median Dec–Feb total over 81 winters of record. Priced from El Niño winters only (DJF ONI ≥ 0.95): 6 of 13 beat it, and this winter is on track to be a strong one. forecastseason.com corroboration: C3S has CONUS 42% above-normal precip for January 2027. Settles on the ACIS record, March 2027.
The Tape
what the models knew, when
— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSEA-DJF2027-PR-GE15.7 · opened 2026-09-07T14:51:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape