daily prop · San Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sat Oct 17

San Francisco high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

YES

settled · observed 83

longshot hit on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 0¢ and still hit.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		86¢
hres		82¢
ndfd		55¢
eps		53¢
nbm		44¢
aifs		3¢
wn2		0¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:09:44+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape