daily prop · San Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sat Oct 17

San Francisco high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 17

YES

settled · observed 83

longshot hit on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 82°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 0¢ and still hit.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		100¢
icon		78¢
hres		69¢
ndfd		56¢
nbm		56¢
eps		36¢
hrrr		20¢
aifs		0¢
wn2		0¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KSFO-20261017-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-15T04:02:39+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:09:46+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape