— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
98¢
nbm
87¢
wn2
80¢
aifs
65¢
hres
60¢
ndfd
55¢
icon
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F23¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape