— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
75¢
nbm
65¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
46¢
hres
41¢
aifs
37¢
wn2
36¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F18¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F12¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261019-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape