— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
66¢
eps
60¢
nbm
55¢
icon
42¢
aifs
40¢
wn2
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F9¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F26¢
70–71°F23¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,463 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.9 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261023-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape