— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
90¢
icon
86¢
nbm
78¢
eps
76¢
aifs
76¢
wn2
73¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F22¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape