— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
eps
46¢
icon
46¢
hres
41¢
wn2
33¢
aifs
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F22¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-17T07:45:08+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape