daily prop · San Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Mon Oct 26

San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Mon Oct 26

13¢

american +687 · decimal 7.87

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		72¢
nbm		24¢
icon		19¢
eps		13¢
aifs		13¢
ndfd		7¢
wn2		4¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

58–59°F1¢

60–61°F2¢

62–63°F4¢

64–65°F7¢

66–67°F11¢

68–69°F14¢

70–71°F16¢

72–73°F15¢

74–75°F12¢

76–77°F8¢

78–79°F5¢

80–81°F2¢

82–83°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,316 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.851 vs climatology 8.841.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape