daily prop · San Francisco, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Tue Oct 27

San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 27

10¢

american +922 · decimal 10.22

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		75¢
eps		21¢
nbm		12¢
icon		10¢
wn2		4¢
aifs		3¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

58–59°F1¢

60–61°F3¢

62–63°F6¢

64–65°F9¢

66–67°F12¢

68–69°F15¢

70–71°F15¢

72–73°F14¢

74–75°F10¢

76–77°F7¢

78–79°F4¢

80–81°F2¢

82–83°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSFO-20261027-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape