— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
71¢
eps
58¢
nbm
52¢
wn2
44¢
hres
39¢
icon
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F23¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE61 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape