— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
icon
96¢
aifs
85¢
wn2
77¢
hres
73¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
48–49°F1¢
50–51°F3¢
52–53°F8¢
54–55°F14¢
56–57°F20¢
58–59°F21¢
60–61°F17¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSLC-20261023-TMAX-GE53 · opened 2026-10-17T15:25:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape