— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
71¢
eps
55¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
50¢
icon
46¢
nbm
46¢
wn2
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F1¢
48–49°F3¢
50–51°F6¢
52–53°F10¢
54–55°F15¢
56–57°F17¢
58–59°F17¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F9¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSLC-20261024-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape