— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
72¢
aifs
68¢
nbm
54¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
51¢
eps
51¢
wn2
38¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F1¢
52–53°F3¢
54–55°F5¢
56–57°F8¢
58–59°F12¢
60–61°F15¢
62–63°F16¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSLC-20261025-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:22+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape