daily prop · Sacramento, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Thu Sep 17

Sacramento high ≥ 78°F · Thu Sep 17

settled · observed 75

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 100¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		96¢
aifs		89¢
eps		86¢
hres		83¢
rrfs		70¢
ndfd		59¢
nbm		41¢
hrrr		22¢
icon		19¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KSMF-20260917-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-09-17T02:57:27+00:00 · settled 2026-09-18T13:36:44+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape