— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
41¢
eps
15¢
aifs
4¢
hres
4¢
ndfd
2¢
nbm
1¢
wn2
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261019-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-12T07:49:05+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape