— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
94¢
hrrr
84¢
hres
75¢
eps
61¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
56¢
icon
53¢
wn2
17¢
aifs
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-14T11:21:05+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape