— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
68¢
icon
56¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
45¢
nbm
42¢
wn2
41¢
hres
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F24¢
72–73°F26¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape