daily prop · Sacramento, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Wed Oct 21

Sacramento stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

2¢

american +4639 · decimal 47.39

on the tape

64°F is the bottom-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present).

Canonical settlement condition: High ≤ 64°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		27¢
wn2		9¢
nbm		7¢
eps		4¢
ndfd		3¢
icon		3¢
hres		1¢
rrfs		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F5¢

68–69°F14¢

70–71°F25¢

72–73°F27¢

74–75°F18¢

76–77°F8¢

78–79°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSMF-20261021-TMAX-LE64 · opened 2026-10-17T19:56:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape