— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
96¢
rrfs
89¢
eps
71¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
55¢
nbm
54¢
wn2
42¢
icon
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F9¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261022-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape