— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
88¢
aifs
84¢
eps
68¢
nbm
67¢
wn2
56¢
ndfd
55¢
icon
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F21¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F4¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape