— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
78¢
aifs
77¢
eps
74¢
wn2
69¢
icon
60¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261024-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape