— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
95¢
icon
93¢
hres
91¢
wn2
89¢
eps
76¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F17¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F16¢
80–81°F11¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261025-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape