— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
98¢
aifs
94¢
wn2
90¢
icon
86¢
eps
69¢
nbm
53¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F7¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F16¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F2¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-19T11:21:20+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape