daily prop · Sacramento, CA · West Coast & Southwest · settles Mon Oct 26

Sacramento runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Mon Oct 26

9¢

american +1039 · decimal 11.39

on the tape

84°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 84°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hres		43¢
aifs		28¢
icon		27¢
eps		8¢
wn2		4¢
nbm		4¢
ndfd		4¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F2¢

68–69°F4¢

70–71°F7¢

72–73°F11¢

74–75°F14¢

76–77°F16¢

78–79°F16¢

80–81°F13¢

82–83°F9¢

84–85°F5¢

86–87°F2¢

88–89°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KSMF-20261026-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:52+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape