— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
48¢
eps
20¢
aifs
13¢
wn2
6¢
nbm
6¢
icon
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F2¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSMF-20261027-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-20T10:54:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape