— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
14¢
hres
11¢
wn2
6¢
aifs
6¢
icon
3¢
nbm
1¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F24¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261019-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:34+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape