— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
59¢
ndfd
54¢
aifs
49¢
wn2
45¢
icon
20¢
eps
19¢
hres
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F14¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape