— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
37¢
aifs
19¢
wn2
11¢
hres
6¢
icon
4¢
eps
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F14¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261023-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape