— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
46¢
wn2
46¢
icon
39¢
hres
26¢
nbm
16¢
ndfd
16¢
eps
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F17¢
76–77°F21¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F7¢
84–85°F3¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261024-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape