— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
73¢
wn2
71¢
icon
55¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
34¢
eps
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F20¢
80–81°F19¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F4¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261025-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:51+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape