— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
60¢
nbm
53¢
icon
52¢
eps
46¢
wn2
41¢
hres
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F16¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F9¢
84–85°F5¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KSTL-20261026-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape