— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
99¢
wn2
95¢
aifs
92¢
hres
86¢
icon
72¢
nbm
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F20¢
82–83°F24¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F11¢
88–89°F4¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261019-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape