— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
98¢
wn2
93¢
icon
84¢
aifs
79¢
nbm
75¢
hres
73¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F1¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F35¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261021-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape