— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
74¢
eps
64¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
54¢
hres
30¢
nbm
24¢
icon
20¢
rrfs
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F18¢
80–81°F31¢
82–83°F28¢
84–85°F13¢
86–87°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261022-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-15T11:39:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape