— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
26¢
hres
16¢
aifs
16¢
wn2
9¢
ndfd
8¢
nbm
1¢
eps
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F23¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261025-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape