— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
41¢
hres
20¢
aifs
20¢
wn2
14¢
ndfd
10¢
nbm
1¢
eps
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F22¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F3¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261026-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-19T17:29:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape