— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
30¢
aifs
21¢
wn2
17¢
icon
17¢
eps
2¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F7¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F23¢
84–85°F24¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F3¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTPA-20261027-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape