daily prop · Tucson, AZ · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sun Oct 18

Tucson high ≥ 84°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 87

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 84°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 2¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		94¢
hres		67¢
ndfd		59¢
aifs		56¢
eps		51¢
nbm		46¢
icon		32¢
wn2		18¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KTUS-20261018-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:39+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:42:52+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape