— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
29¢
icon
13¢
aifs
5¢
eps
4¢
ndfd
3¢
nbm
1¢
wn2
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F23¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F8¢
90–91°F2¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261019-TMAX-GE93 · opened 2026-10-12T07:49:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape