— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
96¢
hrrr
91¢
ndfd
44¢
eps
41¢
wn2
38¢
nbm
37¢
hres
35¢
aifs
31¢
icon
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F1¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F12¢
86–87°F23¢
88–89°F28¢
90–91°F21¢
92–93°F10¢
94–95°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KTUS-20261021-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-14T10:35:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape